The standard deviation for normal 6-max games is about 130-135. In your games it would also highly depend on how deep you guys are playing. I’m guessing, but I would say maybe around 175-200? Realize though, if you have a very high winrate, your probability of a loss after x amount of hands goes down a lot, even if you’re playing in a game with a high standard deviation.
Are those numbers assuming often running it twice? Wouldn’t it change a lot if you can never run it twice? Is it possible it’s way higher than the numbers you stated? Seems like when you go from a lot of heads up pots to tons of multiway pots with blasters that things could be twice as swingy if not more, but I’m just asking because I have no idea. I do understand that winrate plays a large part, but playing around in the variance calculator, when the standard deviation is like 250, then even with a high winrate it seems very easy to lose piles.
I think it’s unlikely the std deviation is twice as high. If you can run it multiple times, that will bring down variance for sure. I would probably assume a std deviation of around 200 and go with that, for the moment.
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