Standard Deviation in Wild Games?

  • Standard Deviation in Wild Games?

  • Gregory Sam

    July 13, 2020 at 5:04 am

    Hey guys,

    About what might the standard deviation be in wild 6max online games? Like games where there are 4-5ish guys playing 45+ vpip, tons of multiway 3bet pots, maniacs in the games etc ?

  • Fernando Habegger

    July 14, 2020 at 11:52 am

    The standard deviation for normal 6-max games is about 130-135. In your games it would also highly depend on how deep you guys are playing. I’m guessing, but I would say maybe around 175-200? Realize though, if you have a very high winrate, your probability of a loss after x amount of hands goes down a lot, even if you’re playing in a game with a high standard deviation.

  • Gregory Sam

    July 30, 2020 at 4:42 am

    Are those numbers assuming often running it twice? Wouldn’t it change a lot if you can never run it twice? Is it possible it’s way higher than the numbers you stated? Seems like when you go from a lot of heads up pots to tons of multiway pots with blasters that things could be twice as swingy if not more, but I’m just asking because I have no idea. I do understand that winrate plays a large part, but playing around in the variance calculator, when the standard deviation is like 250, then even with a high winrate it seems very easy to lose piles.

    Thanks for the input Fernando.

  • Fernando Habegger

    August 1, 2020 at 7:25 am

    I think it’s unlikely the std deviation is twice as high. If you can run it multiple times, that will bring down variance for sure. I would probably assume a std deviation of around 200 and go with that, for the moment.

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