The 2025 World Series of Poker is in full swing, and today we’re dissecting a monumental hand from the Event #14 $25,000 PLO/NLH Mix – the most expensive PLO event of the year so far. This hand, played heads-up, likely sealed the fate of the entire tournament!
Our protagonists are two formidable players:
Ben Lamb
A two-time WSOP Bracelet winner and two-time WSOP Main Event Final Table participant with over $17,000,000 in live earnings.
Lou Garza
A fellow American from Texas, boasting a prior WSOP Gold Bracelet won in the 2023 $10,000 PLO event for over $1,300,000.
Clearly, both are seasoned PLO veterans, battling fiercely for a coveted bracelet and a share of the nearly $500,000 prize difference in this now heads-up match.
Lamb had dominated the Final Table, but the heads-up battle wasn’t going his way, particularly during the NLH rounds. As we enter this crucial hand, the stacks are almost even:
- Ben Lamb: 19.5 Million
- Lou Garza: 17.1 Million
With blinds at 200K/400K and a 400K BB ante, both players are sitting at roughly 40 big blinds, providing ample room for strategic play preflop and postflop.
The Preflop Action
The hand begins with Lamb on the Button holding A♥Q♥J♥3♣. He opens with a pot-sized raise to 1.2 million chips.
It’s important to note that in most tournaments, the BB ante is not considered part of the preflop pot. Therefore, in heads-up play, the maximum raise size remains 3 big blinds, despite the additional money contributed by the ante.
However, said 1 BB ante does have a large impact on both player’s preflop ranges. The ante creates a more aggressive environment, as winning the pot also means winning the ante chips. This was evident in Ben Lamb’s strategy, who adopted a mostly raise-only approach from the Button. Garza, conversely, aimed to keep pots smaller, often limping from his Button, allowing Lamb to see flops cheaply.
Let’s compare how the strategies line up with and without the ante:
Without the Ante: We can see that the Button is advised to limp with around half of their range, raise with approximately 45%, and fold only the weakest 4-5% of hands. This strategy assumes a response of around 15% 3-bets from the Big Blind, with around 25-30% folds from their weakest hands, which don’t want to invest more money out of position.
With the Ante: The presence of the ante changes things quite drastically. The goal becomes to maximize pressure on the Big Blind, aiming to win the pot and the ante immediately!
In fact, if the Big Blind doesn’t adapt and continues to play the non-ante strategy of 3-betting around 15%, the Button can profitably open-raise almost any four cards!
Garza, in the Big Blind, is dealt K♥K♣6♣2♦. He chooses to simply flat-call Lamb’s raise. Considering the Button ranges we’ve discussed, this appears to be a very passive approach, as this hand would typically favor an aggressive line even in non-ante simulations.
Keep in mind, ICM (Independent Chip Model) has no application in a Heads-Up match, as there is no punishment for busting before another player, which is usually a factor in situations with three or more players at the final table.
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The Flop
We move to the flop: 9♠8♦2♠. This is a relatively neutral board for both players. The Big Blind’s typical overpair and high card disadvantage (stemming from preflop 3-bets with these hand types) is less pronounced here compared to boards like AQ5 or QJ7, where the Button could apply significant pressure on the Big Blind’s one-pair hands.
At this point, Lamb elects to go for the continuation bet, putting in 1,400,000 chips, returning the action to Garza. While this hand (A♥Q♥J♥3♣) would make for an excellent (semi-) bluffing candidate if Lamb held a single ♠, without any relevant blockers for board pairs or flush draws, his hand should theoretically be an easy check, as shown here in comparison:
Now, let’s consider Garza’s hand: a bare overpair (KK) without a single backdoor draw. To many, this might seem like an easy fold. However, Garza, with his experience, identified the key card that makes a difference between calling and folding: the deuce!
As we can see here, even without backdoor draws, the presence of the pair pushes this hand just over the threshold for hands we want to defend against a half-pot c-bet. And Garza does just that, making the call!
At this juncture, the pot has swelled to a significant 5,600,000 chips, or approximately one-sixth of all the chips in play.
The Turn
The 2♣ rolls off on the turn, making very hidden trips for Garza and a great barreling card for Lamb!
The solver confirms this, showing the player in position (red) with an absolute range advantage.
This allows the button (red) to bet almost 70% of their range for a substantial sizing. This includes effectively all AQJ combos, which block many of the QQ and JJ combos that would now look to continue against the turn barrel, while unblocking weaker spade draws and hands like 76 and T86 which will now be forced to fold.
Ben Lamb executes this perfectly, demonstrating his advanced understanding of the Great Game of PLO!
The pot now approaches 10,000,000 chips. Unfortunately for Lamb, he has run directly into the top of Garza’s range. Garza holds approximately 10-15% of 2xxx combos, depending on how many hands like 92xx and 82xx he would choose to raise the flop with, and potentially less if he doesn’t find thinner calls on the flop such as AJ72 or A542 with backdoor flush draws.
Garza, after considerable deliberation, decides to put in the raise, delivering the bad news to Lamb. Despite the seemingly small raise size, there’s little Lamb can do here. He’s forced to give up this massive pot, which amounts to exactly half of all the chips in play, putting him in a 2:1 underdog position moving forward.
Conclusion
Could Ben Lamb Have Prevented This?
After researching with the PLO Trainer, the answer appears to be: it’s unlikely.
His preflop decision was sound and clear. While the continuation bet on the flop was definitely thin and not entirely “solver-approved,” the immense pressure he could exert as the chip leader in a WSOP heads-up match for a bracelet likely compensated for any EV difference the solver suggests.
He received an excellent turn card for a barreling opportunity but, unfortunately, ran into the very top of Garza’s range. This forced him to surrender a massive pot, ultimately leading him to fall short of the bracelet and roughly $500,000 less than his opponent.
Lou Garza ultimately took down the event for approximately $1,300,000 and his second gold bracelet.
The entire Final Table of the event can be found on PokerGo’s Youtube Channel.
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