Question about Mid-Low Pairs RFI
MemberJune 4, 2020 at 5:20 pm
I am currently looking at the RFI percentages UTG for categories 54 (Single Suited Connected mid-low pairs) and 42 (Double Suited Connected mid-low pairs). The suggested RFI frequency is 3 percent for the single suit but it jumps to 60 percent for double suit. My question is: why? Even if you get a flush draw on the flop, you’re going to be drawing to like a 3rd or 4th nut flush at best. Why does having the extra suit matter that much for whether you should raise?
MemberJune 5, 2020 at 4:42 am
The short answer is that when you have double suited hands, it is going to be incredibly rare that you will have both of your flush draws dominated in a heads up pot. However, when you have only one combo of suited cards 9 or lower, its going to be dominated fairly often. Also, double suited hands have more equity on rainbow boards as they’re always going to have at least one backdoor flush draw which can often be the difference between taking an aggressive line and a passive line. On a final note, suited cards that are small do have some value not related to making an actual flush. Let’s say you flop a straight on a two tone board. If villain gets it in with you with two pair plus a higher flush draw, removing two of his flush outs is worth a reasonable amount of additional equity in your favor.
The longer answer is that when we look at what a solver is looking for when it comes to preflop hand selection, the answer is: board coverage. A solver needs to have enough nutted combos in its range at all times across all betting scenarios and card runouts. This is because it is playing in an environment in which its opponent is going to know its ranges at all times. As a result if it doesn’t have enough nuts (i.e., enough quads/st flushes etc.) in its range on certain low runouts its opponent is going to know this and attack. I don’t know this for certain, but I don’t imagine it needs A TON of combos to cover low runouts; low board runouts are rare relative to high boards. So let’s put that into context with a hand like 9887. There are 12 combos of 9887ds whereas there are 60 combos that are single suited. When you combine that double suited hands are more versatile and are less frequently occurring, they’re going to make for an obvious pick to round out the bottom of its range over its single suited cousins.
All in all, I tell my students to not vpip any pair lower than TT (dbl pairs excluded) UNLESS they play in a pool in which they steal the blinds or end up in position postflop over 50% of the time. Consider the highest pair below TT. How often are you flopping a set with a hand like t998? (~12%) Of that 12%, how often are you flopping top set? (23%) When you do flop top set, how often is the board clean on the turn? (You will have the nuts on the turn only 14% of the time). Multiply 12% x 23% x 14%. This means you’re going to be happy taking a bet/bet/bet line less than 1/2 of 1% (0.3%). I mentioned in the first paragraph that double suited hands are going to flop more equity more often than single suited hands (specifically on rainbow boards.) Solvers are better at realizing this equity than humans are, and it’s not remotely close. In short, you really need to be playing in a lineup in which the three players to your left are playing at least a reasonably tight strategy in the face of a utg raise for these hands to be profitable from utg.
MemberJune 5, 2020 at 10:29 pm
Thanks for the thorough answer, much appreciated!
MemberJune 6, 2020 at 4:00 am