turn and river decision.

  • turn and river decision.

  • Jp

    Member
    March 23, 2021 at 12:04 pm

    villan 3 bets from SB 7%. I have 3K hands on him. His river aggresion is 3, if that makes any difference. Or help in any way.

    https://plomastermind.com/replayer/524Ptwwn3/

    Preflop i think is standard this deep.

    Flop i think is fine also. Just try and keep his range wide and bluff catch on some decent run outs.

    Turn. I think i fuck it up a little bit here!! I think i should bet fold this turn. I should have the best hand here 67% of the time vs a 7% range. Yes, it feels bad to bet fold nutty equity. But i get to define his range much more and i think it gives me better visibility on rivers. But i am not sure about this thought proces at all???

    On the river as played i think it can go all ways. I was thinking about jamming(perfect combo i guess) I was thinking about calling(kind of good combo for that). But i ended up folding.He should have some AKKx combos in his preflop range. But not all. He should have some KKxx combos. But not a have hole lot. They are mostly double paired and have me beat at this point. And if he has one of those and i jamm, he might just call it off as he has good blockers to call it off with. I am thinking about hands like KKQQ$ds or KKJJ$ds.

    Please help me, could i have played this hand different? Is there a better way to think about this?

  • Dborys

    Member
    March 28, 2021 at 7:39 am

    Hi,

    I would agree that preflop and flop is fairly standard, and that betting turn is likely a decent option. However, I don’t think we can bet fold the turn. Even against combos as strong as KQJT, blocking the A as our outs, we still maintain 36% equity on average, with some implieds as well. At the same time you might do perfectly fine against combos like KKQ9 with spades or KQJ9 with spades, having 60-70% equity. Adding to the fact that most people don’t tend to check raise these spots very much, I’d say that the possible downside of betting is even smaller than usual.

    River seems fairly close, however I feel like most of his KK will have connected with this board in some way or fashion. Depending on how widely you think he will valuebet here, all 3 options can be valid. If he valuebets all K9 and even some 98, jamming with your hand which unblocks all of those cards seems like a fine option. The tighter his valuebetting range gets, the closer the decision will become between calling and folding. As it’s fairly tough to find enough bluffs here, I think erring on the side of folding is completely fine.

    • Jp

      Member
      March 29, 2021 at 2:16 pm

      Hi Dborys.

      Thank you for your insights.

      I appriciate it. Realy valueable about the turn equity.

      I actually think this is kind of a blind spot for me, so i will do some study on that.

      πŸ‘

  • 99gears

    Member
    April 1, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    Pre and flop seems fine. Turn I would also think is fine but didnt look it up on 200bb sim. I could imagine its mixing but not sure. If we bet, I agree we never fold with this combo, still so much equity.

    River its more a clear fold than a close one I think. I plugged a possible c-bet range into the river and we get 21,9% equity, and this is not considering our hand and all the Aces we block. That being said, his c-bet range might look very different than solver’s which has alot of broadway hands in it, but I would assume it still mainly consists of straights and 2p. Villain doesnt have enough KK and AQ/AJ hands that arent beating us in it, and not sure if he bluffs those combos alot (he should). Also I agree that if villain bets wide like weak straights and maybe even some 2p, we have a possible bluffraise candidate with AA.

    • Funkarello

      Member
      April 6, 2021 at 10:21 am

      Personally, i would have done the same thing PF and flop, but I would have bet pot on the turn. If called, i dont think vilain would donk bet river, but if so, even more easy fold

  • Tommycomedian

    Member
    May 24, 2021 at 9:32 am

    Bit late here πŸ™‚

    Yes you are deep here but his range is very capped here 3 betting from the SB.

    On this flop I woulda raised vs his opening (also dependig a bit on his numbers). We have a gutter. backdoorflushdraw and top overpair and we look very strong raising here. He would have a hard time continuing with the likely holding he has. (AAxx, AKKx) at least you would get some free streets if you don’t want to bet turn.

    As played I think a good fold.

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