Triple barrel repping AA

  • Triple barrel repping AA

    Posted by Pyroblast on May 17, 2020 at 3:42 pm

    GG Poker $100 table, 4 handed. I opened BU KT97ds and a gambler type of guy with 75% VPIP called me at SB. I triple pot A-high board but it didn’t go through. He was winning and I thought maybe he would fold even an AQ against a pot size bet trying to protect the result. Opinions?

    Pyroblast replied 4 months, 3 weeks ago 4 Members · 5 Replies
  • 5 Replies
  • JNandez

    Member
    May 17, 2020 at 7:11 pm

    I don’t mind betting the flop against such a wide preflop range. You have plenty of fold equity and outs to hit. I would strongly prefer a small bet size, such as half pot. He has so much trash, which he has to fold against any size. Once you pot the flop, his range becomes much stronger, which makes bluffing turn/river less profitable.

    As played (potting flop) I would shutdown on turn.

    Keep in mind, that by betting smaller on the flop, you will have more fold equity on later streets and you also give yourself a better price to win the pot on the flop.

    • Pyroblast

      Member
      May 18, 2020 at 7:19 am

      Thanks a lot! Thumbsup

  • Infinito46

    Member
    May 22, 2020 at 4:54 pm

    I believe that the expectation of making fold AQ in this spot sometimes to a 75/x player is kinda unrealistic. Be aware of that because it may be costing you a lot of money.

    Also without blockers and blocking the draws it becomes a pretty marginal spot to bluff.

    Cheers

  • 99gears

    Member
    March 14, 2022 at 3:39 pm

    For analysis purpose I will consider how solver construct ranges and not go detail into possible metagame assumptions.

    Preflop (GTO Environment):

    BU 53% RFI, KT97ds 100%.

    SB has basically a non-existent calling range at these stakes, we can already consider that opponent will deviate from this heavily. For analysis purpose I used also the 41% calling range from the BB at PLO500.

    Flop (GTO Environment):

    SB Range normally roughly 80% check 20% bet/leading for 3/4 Pot.

    BU Range roughly 60% check-back, 40% conti-bet for 3/4 Pot. This is obviously considering a strong 8% SB call range though, where we have 49% equity as BU and protect our checking range.

    I also looked it up against a wider 41% BB range, and there it is close to 50/50 for the spot in general (against a non-leading 100% check range).

    KT97ds is mixing with 2/3 check 1/3 bet 3/4 pot in the first sim. In the other one against a mby more accurate wider range, we check-back 100% of the time with our hand.

    I would argue its checking more against a wider range with this specific hand because of the quality of the 9-high flush draw (more&better draws that possibly beat us to face?) plus having the gutshot/highcards on top which are useful for potential runouts. In case we bet draws like this one as well, our c-bet range goes into the upper regions I assume, mby close to 80%-100% even(?). I dont know if we actually have such a huge fold equity in our opponent that we can bet whole range (or close to it).

    Turn (GTO Environment):

    Now this was only possible against a BB sim, where I looked at similar spots that should be close enough.

    SB Check 100%, as played with check-call on the flop.

    BU Check 53%, Bet Pot 47%.

    KT97ds we check 100%.

    River (GTO Environment):

    SB Check 100%, as played.

    BU (roughly) Check 47%, Bet Pot 53%.

    Our combo is not in the River Range anymore, but other KT97 and f ex also KJ97 combos are checking back this River 83%-85% of the time. They have in common holding alot of Flush Cards.

    • Pyroblast

      Member
      May 4, 2022 at 2:39 pm

      Thanks for the great analysis!

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