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Some folds – too nitty?
MemberMarch 23, 2021 at 11:31 am
hi, copied over from Discord:
three (too?) nitty folds – I could imagine those being calls in GTO setting, but potentially are right folds on low stakes?
1) https://plomastermind.com/replayer/2tkYzIp/ – could not imagine being there something other than AA 90% of time and maybe some top 2 pair / pair and a wrap + FD; against this range I have less than 20% equity. Funny enough in game I did not pay enough attention to the fact that I have a gutshot as well, but I reckon it does not impact my decision. Also I wonder what I should do against his check – I think actually slowing down and XB given how much better this card is for his range could be OK to strenghten my XB range here?
2) https://plomastermind.com/replayer/5tkOFrz/ – yeah, I know I have a pair blocker, however how often people X/R here other FDs than NFD which I block? He should also have a lot of KK in his range and given the fact that 4th spade rolled off it is even less likely he would thin value bet worse flush
3) https://plomastermind.com/replayer/3tkOHkK/ – this flop I generally tend to bet my full range and I don’t recall seeing anyone at those stakes coming up with some fancy bluffs here without 5x, but OTF I think we still have mandatory call. OTT I simply don’t know what should I do
MemberMarch 26, 2021 at 4:58 am
I kind of struggled with hand 1 at first, but if we consider how fucked your hand is against AA, it becomes a pretty easy fold. Realistically, he doesn’t need to have a ton of AA just because the times he does, you’re basically handing him $18 or whatever in EV by calling this bet plus however much more on the river. If villain is being reasonably selective with his bluff combos, you’re just almost never going to find yourself in a dominating position considering that most of his AQ/A8 combos are going to have some gutters and bd clubs (all of which you unblock.) Further, you’re still deep enough that theres some money behind and my guess is that you need roughly 40% equity against his betting range. I don’t see how you have that much, but I could be wrong on that one.
Hand 2 is sooooo dependent upon button. If he has a clue, I’m never betting this flop. He has to be calling you at least like 30% or more for it to be a bet. If he is that wide, I’m never flatting the raise just because of how much equity you’re pushing. If he plays a reasonable strategy preflop, this is a really clear check just bc of how much you’re going to see KK.
Hand 3, if you’re bet calling flop, i think you probably have to call a half pot bet on the turn. However, your mistake is betting the flop. At a normal 3bp SPR of ~4, betting 1/3 is going to be completely standard but bc of his min open you have an SPR of 6 and this turns into a much better check raise candidate as he should be firing reasonably wide. Come to think of it, I kind of like checking this hand with the intention of raising at SPR 4, too. You’re almost certainly at a polarity disadvantage and monker consistently shows that the best bluffing candidates on paired boards are pocket pairs. The fact that you have the nut pocket pair and a flush draw make this a perfect candidate to balance our check raise range.
MemberMarch 26, 2021 at 3:02 pm
as to the hand 2 – you mean that you do not call raise here, but rather just push AI? I thought this hand would be in between cbetting and X/B, I know he should in theory have many KKs in his range from the SB, but on those low stakes people call all sort of weird stuff; plus he should have a decent amount of QQs – esp. some of those DS ones should call, while KK ds will always 3bet here, right? In fact I checked it and KKs are only about 11% of calling range here (2376 combos out of 21112 in the range – according to PLO Trainer PLO 50 ranges)
and here I do not have much SDV ATM, but have quite nutted runouts and good equity – I didn’t want to give him a free card, wouldn’t mind if he folded anything really and I could still call a X/R – that is why I cbet
and PLO Trainer bets this particular combo pure on this board – there is Ks7s3d sim and I also checked A742, so that I would not give myself that additional gutshot
Hand 3 – yeah, very good point about higher SPR, prob. did not pay enough attention to it while playing, thanks!
- This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Harrrypokerrr.
MemberMarch 27, 2021 at 3:08 am
OH SHOOT. Yeah, disregard everytihng i just said, I thought we raised CO and BU flatted. Yes, absolutely, bet this one. Yes, absolutely, just flat the raise. Turn is a clear check, and river is a clear call if you’re weighting his calling range away from KK. In all honesty, I don’t know what the answer is because it really depends on how much KK he flats pre. It also really depends on whether he is capable of putting 30 bbs in as a bluff for half pot sizing. My guess is that most villains aren’t that creative and would likely be more value heavy with half pot, but I have no idea what the pool you’re even in let alone what it plays like.
MemberMarch 27, 2021 at 6:29 am
So I just checked this hand in PLO trainer. Bu v SB is a spot I’m not at all familiar with just because at 1/2 and below flatting from the sb is a pretty big leak given rake considerations and how much wider the bb is overcalling in real play. Evidently, A7 w spades, no pocket pair, no board interaction is a pure check back.. This makes sense considering that a GTO sb is going to have a pretty snug flatting range and thus is going to be stronger in general even though he is capped. We’re unblocking top set and have a ton of cards that can give us a lot of equity against AK. With that said, I think this is a spot where you can throw GTO out the window fairly quickly as most villains at these stakes are flatting somwhere in the neighborhood of 30% and your hand is going to be pushing some equity. So I think that I like betting this flop here, and I think against anyone that isn’t particularly good, I’d fold river but against anyone who I would consider to be moderately advanced relative to the pool, I would look them up.
EDIT: As soon as I hit the “post” button, I realized that perhaps it makes a lot more sense to look at an equilibrium solution of bu v bb instead of bu v sb as most villains at 50s are going to force us into a wide vs wide range scenario instead of wide vs tight/capped,. I’m not going to look at the actual range composition, but I can say that looking at the sb/bb leading frequency and the subsequent bu betting frequency when sb/bb checks confirms what I said above. (sb leads 25% whereas bb leads 3, and button bets 33% against a sb check despite them having a fairly substantial leading range, whereas it bets 45% against an almost pure check from the bb.)
- This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Johnnyutah.
MemberMarch 27, 2021 at 10:28 am
I don’t think it is too nitty. I may have not cbet hand 2.
Otherwise, I would have play quite the same than you. But, I throw away that feeling folding here is too nitty. Otherwise, you cant call and you can lose a lot by raising their raises….
MemberApril 1, 2021 at 5:49 am
On the flop solver bets 1/2 pot with all of our sets here, and strengthen our check-back range with some TP, Overpairs and 2p (esp Bottom 2).
On the turn, solver bets out for full pot 70% of time, since its a card that heavily favours his range. However, while doing this his range consists of set of Aces only 23% of time, the rest he will show up with 2p 33% of time, and with different one pairs from around 5-15%. To give you an overview what we should bet in Villains shoes here for full pot (since the Ace is favouring the 3-bettor): KKQJ with FD, AJT/AT9/A96 with FD, KJT8/KT97 etc etc..
So his range probably won’t be looking as wide like this whether preflop or on the turn, not even close I guess, but I would argue he still has more than f ex 10% other combinatorics than Aces in his range, and all 2p like A8/A7 should be pretty much a valuebet on his side. Obv if you are sure he only 3-bets Aces pre basically and wont bet out 2p on the turn or anything else it becomes a different story, but thats like really far away from optimal poker (20% Aces GTO line compared to 80-90% in his real range in that case).
<div>In solvers case, its actually pushing 100% all sets. </div><div>
Flop in my opinion clear bet with NFD/MP, and also sizing wise correct.
We can call the c/r but seems like solver is also re-potting it sometimes.
On the river villain will come up with mostly his c/r range, but are we sure he is never betting any fullhouse when the board pairs on the turn? Anyways, considering his flop c/r range on the river without any subtractions, he will come up with a fullhouse over 25% of the time, and TP combinations with a BDFD and/or FD/Overpair blocker over 60% of the time. Again, we might assume he is nowhere close to this amount of c/r TP combinations + also betting any of those on the river. But since we only have to be right 25% of the time, and there are 25 combos of fullhouses, we only need him to bluff more than 8 combos (considering he is not valuebetting his few Q-high flush… Also note that the solver has 92 combos in total on the river). I would guess, its hard for him to turn many or any of his remaining TP into bluffs on the river, but it really depends on the level of opponent. If he doesnt, making an exploitive fold seems correct (Nutflush is like top 15% of our range).
Good sizing for conti-bet. Solver is actually re-potting almost a third of the time. That said, villains raising range again will be looking very different to solvers. Considering villain flops trips 11% of the time with his preflop range (and fullhouse 2,8%), it really depends if he is raising all of those combos. He should not, since solver is calling way more our 1/3 bet than raising, and it would weaken heavily his calling range. Solver also raises some combos like a Gutshot with a FD blocker or a pair of 3 with a FD. Its true though that we heavily block his bluffraising range with our NFD.
So on the turn, solver is putting it allin vs that raising + 50% bet range (not knowing we have the NFD blocker), and I would assume that blocker is a big factor for folding as its hard to come up with too many bluff combos in villains range (or rarely against something like KK64 with FD, which would really suck laying down to this hand, or against KK with FD in general). 7s is actually also a decent blocker on this board, so yeah… Note that we are pretty easy to lay down hands if we fold Aces + NFD on this board, since its again top of range, should be really depending on opponent or player pool in my opinion.