Villain is a reg but I have no reads on him besides his preflop stats.
The situation seems pretty standard. Villain should be potting this flop in a 3-bet pot so his play is standard. My issue is whether and how I should continue. Given that I block the Ace of spades and lots of weaker flush draws it means he likely has bare overpairs or a wrap. In villains shoes, I find it standard to pot/fold if I don’t have backup to my overpairs, but that’s me. I’m not sure villain is ever pot/folding.
In this case, should I just call and hope that villain check/folds to my turn shove? I don’t like raising since I have 50% equity maximum against his estimated range, so I’m never ahead.
I would fold. i think people dont bluff often with a potbet sizing. we have no fold equity most likely and calling is really expensive. I don’t know what we would di if we had a diamonds backdoor to the K. But here im folding without regrets.
But I hope I’m wrong and I learn something new. Let’s see what the experts say.
This is a basic math problem. There are two steps required to solve it
1) Equity required to stack-off (check graphic attached) – you can download the entire chart in the download section 2) Equity vs range calculation (screenshot attached) – head over to propokertools.com and put in the numbers yourself to solve for it.
Conclusion: Fold flop, we have about 37,1% equity, when 43-45% is required.