Nut flush draw in 3-bet pot

  • Nut flush draw in 3-bet pot

  • Pacnytuh0

    Member
    June 1, 2020 at 5:36 am

    Villain is a reg but I have no reads on him besides his preflop stats.

    The situation seems pretty standard.
    Villain should be potting this flop in a 3-bet pot so his play is standard.
    My issue is whether and how I should continue.
    Given that I block the Ace of spades and lots of weaker flush draws it means he likely has bare overpairs or a wrap.
    In villains shoes, I find it standard to pot/fold if I don’t have backup to my overpairs, but that’s me.
    I’m not sure villain is ever pot/folding.

    In this case, should I just call and hope that villain check/folds to my turn shove?
    I don’t like raising since I have 50% equity maximum against his estimated range, so I’m never ahead.

  • Infinito46

    Member
    June 1, 2020 at 1:46 pm

    I would fold. i think people dont bluff often with a potbet sizing. we have no fold equity most likely and calling is really expensive. I don’t know what we would di if we had a diamonds backdoor to the K. But here im folding without regrets.

    But I hope I’m wrong and I learn something new. Let’s see what the experts say.

  • Fernando Habegger

    Member
    June 1, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    Hi,

    This is a basic math problem. There are two steps required to solve it

    1) Equity required to stack-off (check graphic attached) – you can download the entire chart in the download section
    2) Equity vs range calculation (screenshot attached) – head over to propokertools.com and put in the numbers yourself to solve for it.

    Conclusion:
    Fold flop, we have about 37,1% equity, when 43-45% is required.

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